Recession, No. Slower Growth, Yes

U.S. Industrial Production is the majorbenchmark used by The Institute for Trend Research（ITR）谈论 U.S. macroeconomic environment. The U.S. Industrial Production growth rate has slowed to 3.8 percent as compared to a growth rate of 4.0 percent for all of 2006.毫无疑问，许多读者会看到其内部顺序水平的类似趋势。订单逐年上升，但至少可以说，这种趋势已经变得不平衡。预计增长速度较慢，对未来的关注以及越来越多的不确定性来表征2007年的其余时间。我们认为，对2007年或2008年上半段的经济衰退不关心。之后。

预测呼吁美国工业生产于今年结束2.7％，此前2006年提前2.7％，随后在2008年增长了2.4％。计划有更多的销售机会，但要牢记越来越多的竞争力，并且提高价格将变得越来越困难，尽管有一些潜在的通货膨胀压力。

A word about labor is in order. Many firms are out hunting for qualified people for varied positions. The strength of the economy and the low unemployment rate mean that qualified labor is harder to find and will be more costly once found. This is called wage inflation. There is not much you can do about it except to keep current employees happy and provide sufficient in-house training and incentives to minimize your need to go “outside” for help. We would also suggest that you remember you are likely to need less, not more, fixed and variable labor two years from now. Try using contract labor, overtime and subcontractors when possible.

Fed on track

Wage inflation is a fact of life in the 美国and other global economies (including China ）。工资通货膨胀最终将其进入生产成本，然后进入消费品的成本，这主要是因为工资收益超过了生产率的增长。这种潜在的通货膨胀压力很可能会使美联储董事会目前保持不到利率，并在今年晚些时候或2008年初提高利率的趋势更大。

与住房行业直接或切向相关的读者为公司提供服务，非常了解当前的困难和有关整个行业恢复的各种预测。我们的分析使我们得出结论，住房开始的下降可能在2007年中期左右下降，但是公开和扩展的恢复不可能。读者应该计划在2007年下半年和2008年上半年的住房行业中恢复稳定性。

您服务于汽车行业的人面临着一系列挑战，从不断变化的面孔不等 Detroit(e.g. the sale of Chrysler) to the proposed introduction of $3,000 cars in Russia, 印度, Chinaand other parts of 亚洲. The latter offers opportunities to sell whole new lines of products to the manufacturers lining up to produce the automobiles and parts in these new modern factories.

Chemicals & Allied Products Production is walking in the footsteps of its larger sibling, U.S. Industrial Production, as it transitions to Phase C, slower growth. The data trend is essentially flat right now. We think a mild decline later this year will bring the year as a whole in about 2.3 percent below 2006. There are internal indications in support of the forecast, and these are buttressed by the decline evident in the U.S. Leading Indicator. 2008 will recover those losses and then some, with a projected 3.6 percent annual growth rate.

Alan Beaulieu,alan@ecotrends.org, is Senior Analyst, an economist and a Principal with the Institute for Trend Research, in Concord, N.H.