全球自动化观点

The new century has brought continued technological acceleration, mixed with a fragile financial environment plus worldwide turbulence and uncertainty. Globalization is generating a revolution in the rules of business. Old dinosaurs are dying as new leaders emerge. Leadership traditionally came from the advanced, developed countries. There’s nothing “traditional” any more. For several decades now, the assumption has been that the United States and other industrialized nations will keep leading in knowledge intensive industries, while underdeveloped and developing countries focus on lower skills and lower labor costs. That’s changed. Many countries around the world now compete.

在全球环境中，只有三个财富 - 自然资源，劳动和知识来源。资源（石油，矿物等）与地理位置相关联;通过自动化稳步消除劳动力;知识是关键。通过廉价，通用通信技术，基于知识的工作在全球范围内迁移到最高质量，最低价格的提供者。

The human factor—“asymmetric motivation”—is forcing change. In advanced regions such as North America and Europe, salaries are high and the motivation to work long hours is limited to those few who have natural drive. By contrast, in developing countries, the push for upward mobility is intense, which results in huge productivity differences.

The fundamental purpose of automation is to improve productivity—generate increased, higher-quality output with reduced costs. Productivity has become a fierce, head-to-head competition between regions and nations for the single reason that it is the source of the wealth, the key to improvements in living standards. Those who can produce cheaper, faster, better—win!

The next major changes will come not from incremental improvements, but several new “inflection points.” Innovation will be a key driver for growth. And that may come from virtually anywhere—not just the advanced first-world countries.

虽然北美和欧洲的自动化市场停滞不前（但是这些日子正在建造很少的新工艺植物和工厂），但在既然全球经济衰退时，国外市场将继续扩大。在接下来的二十年内，印度将超越中国成为世界上最有人口的国家。两个国家的中产阶级人口正在迅速推进生产和消耗大量产品，服务和能源。对于任何组织，增长计划必须考虑到这些和其他主要推进国家的市场。

Pricing trap

Prices for automation products are traditionally based on manufactured cost with target gross and net profit margin multipliers. Conventional cost-based pricing is stuck in a trap because global companies are prepared to compete with significantly lower profit margins. The large automation suppliers, struggling to compete against lower-priced commodities, are simply shuffling distribution channels in futile attempts to generate growth while their revenues and profits continue to decline. New pricing paradigms are needed.

Change affects all spectrums in the automation business landscape: end-users; hardware, software and equipment suppliers; services. Plants and factories will move to where materials originate, and will be designed to “disappear” when sources are depleted. Services that can be provided remotely will migrate worldwide to the best low-cost providers. Knowledge moves easily and can be transferred anywhere.

Future scenarios will be vastly different from the past, even within the next decade. In a fragile financial environment, look for new automation leaders to emerge, perhaps even from China, India or elsewhere, through acquisition. Look for BIG changes.

Jim Pinto是一个行业分析师和评论员，作家，技术未来主义和天使投资者。您可以通过电子邮件发送给他：jim@jimpinto.com。或审查他的网站上的预测和预测：www.jimpinto.com.