As Chemistry Goes, So Goes America's Recovery

化学几乎触及了制造的所有产品。

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因此,“当[主要]行业感到经济压力时,我们也是如此。”美国化学委员会((ACC,,,,www.americanchemistry.com)。他补充说,在过去的几个月中,全球化学产量增长了。“同比同比增长表明全球恢复的软化。在美国,化学产量在所有地区都滑倒了。”

That’s dismaying. “For every chemical-industry job in the United States, an additional 5.5 jobs are created within the economy. Also, chemical-industry jobs are high-paying, averaging 43 percent higher wages than the typical manufacturing job,” Swift notes. And since this latest recession began, 75,000 of the industry’s workers have lost their jobs, he adds.

Besides this shrinkage, thechemical process industry (CPI)面临老龄化的劳动力,同时缺乏replacements. “There’s a huge ‘brain drain.’ The biggest thing we see now? The shortage of people from layoffs and early retirements,” observes Larry O’Brien, research director for process automation atARC Advisory Group Inc.((www.arcweb.com), Dedham, Mass. “The industry can’t find knowledgeable people to fill vacancies.”

如果所有这些都没有充分挑战,CPI也面临着偏见的贸易平衡。斯威夫特说,从1977年的191亿美元盈余开始,它在2002年赤字,仍然是负面的。“这些赤字是该行业自1924年以来首次发布的赤字。”

输出上升?

那么在任何地方都有好消息吗?斯威夫特预测:“如果没有衰退的回归,我们预计2010年的化学产量将上升6%,然后在2011年提高到4%的增长,2012年的增长率为4%,”斯威夫特预测。他还预测,国内需求将像美国经济一样继续改善,但“在欧洲较强劲和欧洲经济较弱之后,对欧洲的出口将承受压力。”

China and other Asian markets, as well as Latin America and neighboring nations, will drive external demand, the ACC believes. “Excluding pharmaceuticals, output is expected to rise 6.8 percent in 2010. Basic chemicals and some specialty segments are expected to experience the strongest gains,” Swift suggests. He predicts that chemical production “will rise solidly in all regions in 2010, with the strongest gains in the Gulf Coast and Ohio Valley regions.”

But always present regulatory pressures potentially curb predicted growth and current operations. Even so, “one major legislative effort we support is the meaningful reform of the Toxic Substances Control Act of 1976,” Swift comments. However, the ACC rejects the Congressional initiative regarding proposed cap-and-trade regulations for so-called greenhouse gases. The organization fears potential far-reaching costly consequences, such as dramatically higher prices for energy sources, including natural gas.

寻求降低成本,CPI现在还重新评估了其业务的工作方式,CPI主任Louis Meyer在德克萨斯州普莱诺的全球行业解决方案集团中,得克萨斯州总部设有自动化供应商Invensys操作管理((iom.invensys.com)。“I see more and more [CPI] players needing and looking to make changes that may prove to be radical.”

两组需求转向此活动。“首先,生产商寻求更好地了解其业务中正在发生的事情。他们需要可靠,值得信赖的数据。”迈耶说。他说,其次,有必要在业务的所有部分之间进行更好的合作。他们可以通过共享一个共同的数据库与转换为特定工作或角色的信息来实现这一目标;通过使用最适合业务的通用“语言”;并立即对其决策对业务绩效的影响产生反馈。

“You’ve got an industry where you’re going to have less personnel; older控制系统in desperate need of modernization; and new systems with a ton of information—and using them and their data intelligently,” remarks O’Brien. As he says, this will all challenge the CPI—and, thus, America’s economy.

C. Kenna Amos,ckamosjr@earthlink.net,是一个自动化世界贡献编辑.

美国化学委员会,,,,ACC
www.americanchemistry.com

ARC Advisory Group Inc.
www.arcweb.com

Invensys操作管理
iom.invensys.com

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