我们没有看到油价下跌至每桶55美元。发生了什么？经济基本面和战略操纵的结合正在起作用。
Soft global demand collided with expanding production in the U.S., and made price decline inevitable. OPEC’s (specifically Saudi Arabia’s) expressed intent to “maintain market share” by keeping the oil spigot wide open is a significant factor in the steepness of the decline and the tipping point that no one saw coming. The Saudis have billions in hard currency reserves and low production costs. The onset of the decline in prices coincided with the strengthening of the U.S. dollar in June when the Federal Reserve announced the end of its half-decade long campaign of injecting cash into the economy to prop up prices. Oil prices and the U.S. dollar are inter-related, so a strong U.S. dollar will help to keep oil prices low.
由于夏季峰值比典型的山峰陡峭，石油价格下降了50％。当前情况是独一无二的，因为在过去的30年中，石油通常会伴随着美国衰退（1987-88，1990-1993，2000-2003）或亚洲金融危机（1996-1998）。美国没有发生衰退，也没有根据领先的指标投入。我们正在未知的水域航行。
ITR经济学的领先指标没有任何迹象表明美国将在2015年遵循其他国家进入衰退。ITR领先指标，美国领先指标，采购经理指数指数和非防卫资本货物新订单新订单都保持在年度之上。。美国公司是现金富裕和赚钱的（金融公司是一个显着的例外）。公司正在购买设备，提高效率并投资于信息技术。
Congress approved the tax extenders for 2015, including the accelerated depreciation allowance. Employment is rising. And the record-breaking stock market run is providing many Americans with a greater sense of security. Our self-sufficiency and financial health serves us well right now. ITR Economics’ outlook has not changed for 2015 or 2016. We expect growth to continue, but at a slightly milder pace in 2015.
Ongoing economic growth is showing itself in capacity utilization rates, with many industries above their 20-year averages. The slack created by the Great Recession has either been put to work or been removed from the books. This is a reflection of an expanding economic environment. The oil price decline could soften growth in some sectors/businesses. But whatever downside pressures there may be on industrial production and to a lesser extent on GDP, the upside of increasing consumer and business discretionary income should contribute to a rebalancing of the U.S. economy toward more consumption and service sector activity. So far in this post-recession period, industrial production has been growing appreciably faster than the service sector. We expect some rebalancing in 2015 as consumers take full advantage of low energy costs while the oil and gas extraction (10.1 percent of industrial production in 2011) slows in its rate of growth.
The economies of the globe are not synchronized at the moment, and they won’t be for the coming year. The best opportunities in 2015 will be in North America, which is driving growth for the larger global economy. The U.S. alone accounts for 22.7 percent of global GDP. Add Canada and Mexico, and North America is providing more economic updraft than anywhere else in the world.
从全球角度来看，担心欧洲的衰落会使美国经济陷入衰退的情况下是放错了位置的。美元的实力与全球经济增长相结合肯定会影响美国出口商，但美国并不像欧洲，中国，日本和印度那样依赖增长出口。
欧洲的温和恢复正在轻度下降。一些东方国家有增长，但在较大的西方经济体中持续了困难。德国的年度工业生产正在上升，但增长的速度正在放缓。法国，意大利和希腊的年度低于年度水平。英国的表现要比德国和法国要好。ITR经济学的分析是，周期性削弱将持续到2015年至少四分之三，然后我们看到该地区恢复的迹象。
China (GDP ostensibly equaling 12.4 percent of the world’s GDP) is slowing in its ascent, and industrial production is rising at 9.1 percent (annual basis). Japan, the world’s third largest economy, is technically in its fourth recession in six years. Russia’s economic woes are increasing: Interest rates rose to 17 percent, the ruble fell to half the value it had six months ago, world oil prices are below Russian production costs, and sanctions are limiting foreign investment. India’s economy, smaller than Russia’s, is growing at a mild 1.0 percent (industrial production, annual basis).
有关油价影响的更多信息
能源生产是美国GDP的8.0%,10.0 percent of U.S. industrial production. The November industrial production data showed both the mining and manufacturing sectors still rising at an accelerating pace, and there is no sign of any fall-off yet. However, we expect the oil price decline to slow industrial production growth in 2015. Our major concern with oil prices is the implication to our energy-related clients, and not as a perceived risk to the general economy at this time.
Among the winners are low to middle income families and those on fixed incomes, for whom cheaper fuel costs have a larger proportionate effect on their disposable income. Retailers should see more cash coming in and healthier bottom lines. Businesses will feel relief from energy prices. Europe’s economy may fear deflation, but this could lift to consumer discretionary income at a much needed time.
获奖者名单的显而易见的例外是那些投资于石油行业的人以及许多上游的小型金属商店，设备制造商和批发分销商。没有石油生产商喜欢这个价格点。扩张可能会在2015年放缓。那些在既定油田上投资的人也可以以每桶50至55美元的速度生存，即使它一直延长到2015年。油片的较晚参赛作品将减缓其扩张速度，关闭或出售的速度。今年的能源库存已下跌超过19％，而市场本身则超过14％。一些石油公司宣布减少2015年的资本投资。
Consider the impact of low oil prices on Russia and ISIS. Already under severe economic sanctions, Russia and Iran are running out of options for their stagnant economies. Russia’s foreign direct investment is down $103 billion from a year ago and capital improvements are wobbling. Russia’s interest rate spike has so far proven ineffectual at stemming the ruble’s rout, and Russia’s central bank has been spending down its hard currency reserves without success. There is some good news from low oil prices in that ISIS fueled its brutal killing spree by selling oil on the black market, when prices were $90 to $110 per barrel. The U.S. and allies have closed supply routes and oil prices may starve the ISIS war machine.
The big question is how long oil prices will remain this low. There is no clear precedent for the extent of this decline. History suggests that oil prices will remain low into at least the third quarter of 2015. Though oil prices may dip into the mid $40 per barrel, we think prices are more likely to drift around the mid $50s for the first three quarters of 2015 and head higher as we end 2015. This is based on the ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar, the leading indicator trends, and our analysis of historic trend characteristics.
重要的是要注意,我们预计美国电子商务onomy and global economies to move onto the upside of the next business cycle during 2016, which will shift demand in favor of a price rise. What is happening today with oil prices is not the crippling oil embargos of the 1970s. The U.S. economy is expanding and has an abundance of energy resources. Prices could be the timely stimulus enabling a strong U.S. economy to become even stronger. A strong economy and 50 percent decline in energy costs should spur U.S. businesses to invest in upgrading equipment and technology. We think the U.S. in general has more to win than lose in 2015.
>> Alan Beaulieu,alan@itreconomics.com，是趋势研究所（ITR）的主席。ITR博客可以在www.itreconomics.com/blog。
