例如，非防御资本货物新订单（不包括飞机）的年度比去年高12.9％。正如我们预测的那样，新订单趋势的上升速度正在放缓。企业对企业的支出正在改善，这对自动化世界的读者来说很好。保持营销和销售努力。增加的市场份额将有助于抵消您明年可能遇到的利润率侵蚀，因为生产商的价格上涨，而且销售价格仍然很粘。
媒体报道，10月在平民劳动力（非农场，季节性调整）中创造了80,000个工作岗位，该消息被称为“令人失望的”和“令人沮丧”。这几乎不是。引用的数字是季节性调整的，这不是我们的首选。我们更喜欢未经调整的数字，但我们会回到这一点。80,000比9月份增长了0.06％，平均十月的增长率为0.9％。2005年和2007年（恢复年）增加了0.06％的匹配项，比2006、2008和2009更好。这个数字不是“惨淡的”，但实际上令人鼓舞。
Even more important is that 883,000 jobs were created on an un-adjusted (not seasonally adjusted) basis. That’s a steeper-than-normal 0.67 percent increase from September. Other than last October’s increase of 0.75 percent, this year’s increase was the best since 2004.
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9月是我们ually a weak month for retail sales and you might expect sales to be down. Not so. The United States experienced the second strongest August-to-September rise in seven years, exceeded only by 2010. The seasonal trend is running within a normal historical range, providing a very good sign in terms of ongoing general economic activity in the United States. The National Retail Federation is projecting 2.8 percent growth this Christmas, slightly better than the 10-year average. Our fourth quarter projection is for a gain of 2.9 percent over the same quarter last year. Make sure you keep inventories lean; use strategic pricing rather than sporadic sales promotions; understand your local market; and increase your web/social media presence.
Industry news
Chemicals and chemical products production is at a 29-month high, up 1.7 percent from the same period last year (annual year-over-year basis). Production is anticipated to maintain its rising trend through 2013, with the pace of rise quickening in early 2012. The recent nine-year low in natural gas prices has led to a wave of relocation proposals in the chemical industry. Numerous chemical and fertilizer companies have announced plans to construct new facilities in the United States that use natural gas as a raw material, creating an abundance of additional capacity. With the drop in gas prices, American manufacturers are in a prime position to build new plants and expand production.
Food production declined slightly in September, but the overall trend remains flat. While production is not expected to slip below year-ago levels, the rate of growth will slow considerably by the end of 2011 to the more sustainable rate of 1.0 percent. Accelerating growth will take hold by mid-2012.
The durable goods new orders data trend is moving higher, but the pace of the rise continues to weaken. Annual New Orders currently stand 9.7 percent above last year. Orders are expected to grow at a slower pace over the next two quarters but will remain above the year-ago level. Expect a stronger rate of growth to return by the second quarter of 2012.
艾伦·波利乌（Alan Beaulieu）,alan@itreconomics.com, is president of the Institute for Trends Research (ITR). His weekly radio show, “Make Your Move,” can be heard atwww.voiceamerica.com每个星期一下午4点（东部时间）。播客可通过VoiceAmerica和iTunes获得。ITR博客可以在www.itreconomics.com/blog.
