Ever heard of the Delphic Oracle, for example? If I could peer accurately into the future, this job would just be a hobby. I can't, but there are perceivable trends that provide some clues to the industry direction.
我们进行了两项调查，为本月的自动化和制造创新进行了准备。我与搜索最新技术并开发所有大家用来改善制造和生产运营的产品的公司联系了公司的首席技术人员（请参阅请参阅Sourcing Tomorrow's Automation Innovations). We also surveyed you, the readers ofAutomation World. Contributing Editor James Koelsch's report of your comments can be seen这里.
In the spirit of the season, here are some "Gary's Prognostications" based on these surveys and other reading and conversations. Technology trends to watch include networking, virtualization, mobility, manufacturing intelligence and analytics, and visualization. Look for workflow applications with business processes. An industry trend is consolidation through acquisition.
If networking is not in your skill set, then it's time to learn more about it. Ethernet is huge. This technology has pretty thoroughly infiltrated industrial automation. Wireless networking is still growing slowly. Look for it to continue to grow and diversify. Wireless sensor networks will continue to grow, but look for it to be WirelessHart for process applications and ZigBee for building. I don't expect to see much from the ISA100 effort for quite some time. That committee seems to be buried in politics and procedural issues. Not to mention trying to develop a technology and a standard simultaneously.
在软件方面，寻找计算机和软件的增加以改善分析。将数据变成可行的信息以进行更好的业务决策的必要性即将到来。寻找今年有更多功能。还要寻找更多地采用“软件作为服务”，也称为云计算或托管
applications—to increase. Information technology managers are growing more comfortable with the technology as security is proven. Price and flexibility are the drivers here.
主要的自动化供应商将在2011年继续收购较小的公司，因为他们努力填补投资组合并加强其在关键工业领域的业务。ABB和GE等人正在投资能源技术。Honeywell Process Solutions，Invensys运营管理，Rockwell Automation和Siemens都在收购中。
Acquisitions
While we're talking about acquisitions, I love debating the future with Jim Pinto (seePinto's Prognostications 2011). Jim has a belief that companies reach a certain size and then must be acquired, because they cannot grow fast enough. He got this idea from the Greiner Curve (www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newLDR_87.htm) and a subsequent article in the Harvard Business Review. I don't have space to analyze the entire curve here, but I have a couple of observations to respond to his view that Invensys Operations Management (IOM) and Rockwell Automation are in that size that requires their acquisition.
The Greiner Curve identifies six phases with crises precipitating transitions from phase to phase. The last phase, the one Pinto identifies with revenues, states, "Growth may continue through merger, outsourcing, networks and other solutions involving other companies." I've interviewed many people and observed actions. I think Rockwell is actually doing most of those (except the merger idea, but they won't tell me that ahead of time). I think the future of IOM depends upon factors outside its management—namely what happens at the corporate level.
While I think it is possible for large companies to innovate, excitement and growth in an industry comes from entrepreneurs with new ideas and energy. Where will this come from this year? Will it be you?
我们进行了两项调查，为本月的自动化和制造创新进行了准备。我与搜索最新技术并开发所有大家用来改善制造和生产运营的产品的公司联系了公司的首席技术人员（请参阅请参阅Sourcing Tomorrow's Automation Innovations). We also surveyed you, the readers ofAutomation World. Contributing Editor James Koelsch's report of your comments can be seen这里.
In the spirit of the season, here are some "Gary's Prognostications" based on these surveys and other reading and conversations. Technology trends to watch include networking, virtualization, mobility, manufacturing intelligence and analytics, and visualization. Look for workflow applications with business processes. An industry trend is consolidation through acquisition.
If networking is not in your skill set, then it's time to learn more about it. Ethernet is huge. This technology has pretty thoroughly infiltrated industrial automation. Wireless networking is still growing slowly. Look for it to continue to grow and diversify. Wireless sensor networks will continue to grow, but look for it to be WirelessHart for process applications and ZigBee for building. I don't expect to see much from the ISA100 effort for quite some time. That committee seems to be buried in politics and procedural issues. Not to mention trying to develop a technology and a standard simultaneously.
在软件方面，寻找计算机和软件的增加以改善分析。将数据变成可行的信息以进行更好的业务决策的必要性即将到来。寻找今年有更多功能。还要寻找更多地采用“软件作为服务”，也称为云计算或托管
applications—to increase. Information technology managers are growing more comfortable with the technology as security is proven. Price and flexibility are the drivers here.
主要的自动化供应商将在2011年继续收购较小的公司，因为他们努力填补投资组合并加强其在关键工业领域的业务。ABB和GE等人正在投资能源技术。Honeywell Process Solutions，Invensys运营管理，Rockwell Automation和Siemens都在收购中。
Acquisitions
While we're talking about acquisitions, I love debating the future with Jim Pinto (seePinto's Prognostications 2011). Jim has a belief that companies reach a certain size and then must be acquired, because they cannot grow fast enough. He got this idea from the Greiner Curve (www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newLDR_87.htm) and a subsequent article in the Harvard Business Review. I don't have space to analyze the entire curve here, but I have a couple of observations to respond to his view that Invensys Operations Management (IOM) and Rockwell Automation are in that size that requires their acquisition.
The Greiner Curve identifies six phases with crises precipitating transitions from phase to phase. The last phase, the one Pinto identifies with revenues, states, "Growth may continue through merger, outsourcing, networks and other solutions involving other companies." I've interviewed many people and observed actions. I think Rockwell is actually doing most of those (except the merger idea, but they won't tell me that ahead of time). I think the future of IOM depends upon factors outside its management—namely what happens at the corporate level.
While I think it is possible for large companies to innovate, excitement and growth in an industry comes from entrepreneurs with new ideas and energy. Where will this come from this year? Will it be you?
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