在我们以前的文章中，从A开发Mundo PMMI调查，我们定义了三种情景，即克服Covid-19大流行后Cpgs可能会面临。本文发布的分析涉及确定这些情景的一些特定方面，例如危机对消费者和市场的影响，目前面临品牌所有者的最重要挑战以及他们对通常的工作动态的回报阶段的预测。
Without a doubt, the months we have spent protecting ourselves from the possibility of contagion by coronavirus have modified many of our life habits, some due to the economic disruptions the emergency has created, and others due to the search for greater safety and a more specific awareness of health.
这就是为什么我们试图从我们的调查参与者的回答中识别，这是大流行对包装商品和市场动态的最相关的影响？
Decreased Purchasing Power Leads the Impacts
The responses to our survey clearly pointed out that the decrease in purchasing power is the aspect that has hit consumers the hardest. Faced with diminished incomes, many households have had to rationalize their purchases, and prioritize more basic and essential products.
这种购买力下降导致对消费者的影响列表在很大程度上反映了我们不得不面对目前大流行的少量准备。“危机表明，我们需要在我们的预测中进行更改，因为储蓄习惯并不普遍存在我们的拉丁美洲地区，这种情况使许多人不受保护，”墨西哥调查参与者表示。
工作损失也对许多拉丁美洲家庭经历的经济状况恶化，并且未来的期望并不是很有前景。根据一份报告Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC),Labor Situation in Latin America - Work in Pandemic Times: Challenges posed by the Coronavirus Disease, this year could bring an increase of at least 3. 4% in unemployment rates, which would translate into a cumulative total of 11.5% by the end of 2020.
Another factor affecting the purchasing power of many people in Latin America has been the absence of strict measures to control unauthorized increases in product prices. “Purchasing capacity and price sensitivity have been impacted; due to the shortage of various products some suppliers and merchants have increased costs by up to 100%," stated another producer of packaged consumer goods we consulted.
但对购买力的影响并不是唯一的aspect the pandemic has affected. As a result of quarantine measures and compulsory isolation, means of purchasing have changed, and there is now a boom in home sales and electronic commerce. Likewise, greater attention to health and safety issues is influencing household purchasing decisions today, and the decision to purchase products from known and reliable sources begins to be evident among consumers. “The search for local products and decisions that support economies in the nearby environment will be reinforced,” affirmed a food industry professional surveyed.
Markets Adapt to Needs
对于大流行病方案，我们在Mundo PMMI调查中对参与者的期望主要基于他们在几个月内观察到的消费者和市场行为。电子商务和家庭销售的广泛使用已经证明了它们的有效性，而不仅仅是在健康保护方面，也是方便，效率和可靠性。
This fact is evidenced in the responses received, which place the increase in electronic commerce as the main expected market impact, even above an increase in costs and a reduction in demand for goods. Euromonitor International, for example, claims that online acquisitions will become the world's fastest growing sales channel in 2022.
The months many consumers have spent under isolation measures have served as a testing period for the advantages of electronic commerce. E-commerce had been showing dynamic growth in Latin America in previous years, as reported by aneMarketer Business Intelligence Center study, revised to include the effects of the COVID-19 crisis, which estimates this year’s growth in digital purchases at 11%, reaching a turnover of $83.6 billion dollars and 19.4% growth. Ways of selling and buying seem to be changing dramatically; we will need to live with these new scenarios and make the most of them. "As long as the coronavirus is not controlled, many things will change in our lives, and it will be necessary to adapt to the new normal," says a survey participant with conviction.
Learning on the Go
Given the conditions described for consumers and markets, the outlook for the remainder of this year poses important challenges. Overcoming the pandemic alone will not be the solution to problems faced by the processing and packaging industries. The lessons learned are being capitalized, and before companies’ productivity and marketing approach their 2019 levels, new strategies must be implemented to counter the effects of this emergency and shield firms against possible relapses or the emergence of similar events.
We therefore wanted to hear directly about the actions that our survey participants identify as essential protection measures for their safe operation, particularly those related to supply chain management. Their responses reveal a clear intent to implement actions where supply sources take on a highly relevant role. In particular, strengthening local supply indicates a trend clearly attributable to COVID-19’s effects, reflecting convenience for companies in sourcing from nearby vendors and optimizing process steps in the chain, such as transportation and communication with suppliers.
The stated intent to expand the supplier base and establish more solid and proactive relationships with vendors, through measures such as the preservation of their financial health, an increase in the number of active supply companies, and regular purchase orders is also very significant.
近期的背景
Today, imagining a post-pandemic scenario results in more uncertainties than certainties. However, the voices of those facing the daily challenges of working in the midst of such an emergency offer valuable insights and guidelines. Likewise, the opinions and results of studies carried out by researchers and specialized entities provide expectations with solid elements for analysis. PMMI recently conducted a comprehensive study of the current situation,Economic Impact of COVID-19, Guidance in an Uncertain Economy，它为我们的调查提供了深度预测的背景。
In analyzing short-term perspectives, the PMMI study predicts a normalization of global industrial production indexes once the COVID-19 crisis has passed. This report states, “The most logical way to think about the situation is to consider its end. A vaccine will have been developed, either this year or next; we will overcome the effects of the pandemic and begin to return to the normal foundations of the business cycle.”
